Data First, Policy Later
EU regulators setting recycling targets for e-bike batteries are working with incomplete data. Accurec-Recycling, a German recycler, has now published research that could help close that gap.
The Data Problem
When new waste streams like e-bikes, vapes, or coffee capsules emerge, policymakers often set recycling targets without reliable figures on future volumes or product lifespans. E-bikes illustrate the issue clearly. Batteries are now ubiquitous, but how long before they need replacing? Selling large numbers today means corresponding waste batteries won’t appear until the 2030s, distorting collection rates in the interim.
What the Numbers Show
Accurec-Recycling’s facility in Krefeld, Germany, has provided the first hard data from actual operations. Researchers analyzed nearly 2,000 e-bike batteries returned from the Netherlands, Belgium, Denmark, and Finland. The study measured not battery cell lifetime but age on return—the span between manufacture and arrival at the recycling plant. This method provides a snapshot of the current market and helps predict future waste streams.
The unweighted mean age on return came to 7.82 years. That’s below the 10-year figure in EU assumptions, but the researchers caution against treating it as a final answer. The rapid growth of the e-bike market skews the results, as younger batteries still in use outnumber older ones reaching end-of-life. The findings broadly support the upper end of the EU’s range of 5.3 to 10 years.
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Policy Implications
The study points to a deeper problem with how collection targets are calculated. Until now, regulators have used the mass sold in the preceding three years as a reference point. For products lasting a decade or more, this approach can significantly underestimate the number of batteries that will eventually need recycling. The EU Batteries Regulation acknowledges this flaw and obliges the Commission to revise its calculation method by August 18, 2027.
The European Commission’s Joint Research Centre is currently working on how to estimate the actual number of batteries available for collection at any given time. This requires matching past sales figures against assumed lifetimes to estimate annual end-of-life volumes accurately.
The Accurec study provides a real-world benchmark for this work. It shows that the current method of calculating collection targets based on recent sales may underestimate the future recycling needs, potentially leading to policy gaps and inadequate recycling infrastructure.
The findings from Accurec’s study could thus be key in helping policymakers refine their targets and ensure that the recycling infrastructure keeps pace with the growing e-bike market and other similar waste streams.
